Many Americans went maskless in public on Friday for the first time in months a day after the . 3.1.2023 8:00 AM, 2022 Reason Foundation | At its highest level of containment efforts, New York state scored an 80 on the index. Massachusetts. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus. But since people were allowed to remove their masks while eating and drinking, requiring them to cover their faces upon entry was more a symbolic gesture than a serious safeguard. Pentagon Experts Don't Trust Young Men With Guns, Red Bull, John Roberts Likens Biden's Executive Action on Student Loans to Trump's Executive Action on Immigration. This protective effect of mask wearing was evident across four months of the pandemic, even after adjusting the associations for mask policy, distance policy, and demographic factors. Randomized clinical trials involving flu viruses had shown, contrary to popular wisdom in Japan and other Asian countries, that there was no evidence that face masks are effective in reducing transmission, as the WHO summarized the scientific literature. The worst outbreaks in the country now are in places where policymakers did the least to prevent transmission, according to the Oxford index. The current surge is worst in places with few containment measures. But there are still settings where wearing your mask is crucial. "Arizona surprised me because they went from having the second-lowest mask adherence in May and June [less than 22%] to the highest level in July and August [greater than 80%]. Writing original draft, There's little evidence that mask mandates are the primary reason the pandemic waves eventually fallthough much of the outrage over lifting mandates is based on that assumption. When Can I Go Out in Public Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? New infections have stayed among the lowest in the country, adjusted for population though cases now are rising in New York as they are everywhere. It is also possible that survey respondents misreported their mask wearing adherence; whether they would be more or less likely to over or under-report is open to speculation, but residents in states with mask wearing policy might over-report adherence to appear compliant. Maskaholics in the press are calling for permanent masking on trains, planes, and buses. Louisiana. Most states in the low quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus transmission. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion. New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, called it a validation of the countrys go hard, go early strategy, in which the country reacts rapidly to signs of community spread. Some countries that implemented fast, early restrictions and robust test-and-trace programs have seen the most success. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health, notes that the graph for California, which required masks in indoor public settings beginning on December 15, is "strikingly similar" to the graph for Florida, which had no mask mandates. If youve been vaccinated and still feel mortally threatened by the virus, please read this. Subscribe to Reason Roundup, a wrap up of the last 24 hours of news, delivered fresh each morning. Click through the PLOS taxonomy to find articles in your field. We calculated the average mask use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020. States in COVID-19 high-risk categories are listed in Table 1. Many experts acknowledge that the rise and fall of waves is a bit of a mystery.". The study referenced in the One America News Network report says the opposite, noting that mask mandates were linked to statistically significant decreases in COVID-19 case within 20 days of implementation. As COVID-19 cases continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates as of this week. Investigation, The strongest real-world evidence in favor of general masking comes from a randomized trial in Bangladesh, which found that the use of surgical masks reduced symptomatic infections by 11 percent. By Jocelyn Solis-Moreira Our study was also limited by the lack of information on accessibility of COVID-19 testing; if less accessible testing is associated with less mask adherence, the associations we report here may be under-estimates. Although Hawaiis governor did not issue a mask wearing policy until after October 2020, we considered that state to have a policy because mayors of the four populous counties had mandated mask wearing earlier in the pandemic. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. 18, 2020. The United States, as of Friday, posted a seven-day moving average of 62,555 new COVID-19 cases reported daily, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The last time . Though many have taken fresh steps to contain the virus since then, the Times analysis compares cases and hospitalizations for a given date to a states index score from two weeks before, since researchers say it is reasonable to expect a lag between a policy's implementation and its outcome. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.g002. 3.1.2023 11:20 AM, Elizabeth Nolan Brown In Germany, by contrast, more than 80 percent did so, but look at the similar trajectories of the daily Covid death toll in both countries from the summer of 2020 through March of this year. Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. The CDC received some criticism for its junk science on masks, particularly for its false claims about the benefits of masking schoolchildren, but the press mostly promoted the agencys narrative. Contributed equally to this work with: She finds that mask-wearing is still the best course of action for mixed-vaccination status gatherings. Conceptualization, | Data on population distributions from the COVID-19 US State Policy Database [13] came from the US Census. When we looked at states with 75% mask adherence (Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont), we found none had experienced a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. For mask adherence, the cut-off values for the low and high quartiles were 31% and 46% in June, 53% and 72% in July, 55% and 71% in August, and 55% and 68% in September. In the first 20 days after implementingmask mandates, new cases slowed by 0.5 percentage points. The graph for New York, which also had a statewide mask mandate, looks very much like the graph for California, but with an earlier peak. Nevertheless, it is possible that average mask adherence in a given month does not capture the most effective time period that influences COVID-19 rates. | Note: Cases and hospitalizations are data from Nov. 16. "Lifting of mask mandates across the board without consideration of the caveats does open the opportunity for another wave," Werler says. Their cumulative rates of Covid mortality were virtually identical, too (in fact, there were slightly more deaths per capita in the states with mask mandates). It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. On November 8, Utah implemented a mask mandate, as new daily Covid-19 cases continue to rise in the state and across the country. Our analyses took into consideration the delayed effect of mask wearing and policies on COVID-19 health outcomes. Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence, none reported a high COVID-19 rate. Werler and her team used the COVID-19 U.S. State Policy Database to collect policy and demographic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. To calculate monthly COVID-19 case rates, we abstracted the number of new cases reported by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [17] and state population sizes in 2019 [18]. When Can I Dine Indoors Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? The study also did not measure compliance with and enforcement of mask mandates and prohibitions on dining at restaurants. When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. Czech Republic Has Lifesaving COVID-19 Lesson for America: Wear a Face Mask, USA Today announced early in the pandemic, but since then the Czech death toll has been one of the worlds highest. 2.18.2022 4:30 PM. Yes So theres a need to make decisions and be decisive, Dr. El-Sadr said. All reviews and studies included in this document report on data collected in a time period prior (Andy Wong) HONG KONG (AP) Hong Kong will lift its mask mandate on Wednesday, ending the city's last major restriction imposed during the . Immediately after these mandates were instituted, these declines were statistically significant.. States that have kept more control policies in a more consistent way New England states, for example have avoided a summer surge and are now having a smaller fall surge, as opposed to states that rolled them back very quickly like Florida or Texas, Mr. Hale said. For now, relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the government's compromise. R-0 may be the most important scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus pandemic. Sources: Restrictions tightened as cases were rising. The current study . here. Yes When Can I Go to the Movie Theater Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? Higher mask use (rather than mandates per se) has been argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates. It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. In fact, it doesn't study mask efficacy at all. Some reopened quickly and saw cases rise. Methodology, That period is used as the benchmark against which researchers compared days 21 through 60 before mask mandates were adoptedand the 100 days after. Copyright: 2021 Fischer et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. More detailed message would go here to provide context for the user and how to proceed. Writing review & editing, Roles Our observation that states with mask adherence by 75% of the population was associated with lower COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month suggests that states should strive to meet this threshold. For mask adherence levels, we utilized the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) COVID-19 Projections online database [15], which holds data collected by Facebook Global in partnership with the University of Maryland Social Data Science Center [16]. If this is true, we would expect associations between mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates to be even stronger. For the period of April 1 through October 31, 2020, less than half of states had issued a mandate for mask wearing in public and nearly a third had not made any recommendation. The claim that a CDC study found face masks to have a negligible effect on the spread of COVID-19 is FALSE. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic [6]. Many of the states without a mask mandate had low mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates. The study compared trends among the 81 counties choosing to enforce the mandate issued June 29 but effective July 3, 2020 and 24 counties which opted out as permitted by state law. Despite an early outbreak, South Korea flattened the curve with aggressive testing and contact tracing, as well as widespread mask wearing. Former Arizona AG Found No Evidence of 2020 Election Fraud. "Our results suggest that mask-wearing is strongly affected by factors other than mandates. Privacy Policy | | The Kentucky senator presses on with his fight against the federal governments Covid response. "Large indoor gatherings without masking among a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons is a recipe for trouble.". We thank Dr. Julia Raifman Boston University School of Public Health for developing, maintaining, and providing open access to the COVID-19 US State Policy Database. In August 2020, the Congressional Research Service also wrote that federal constitutional precedents made it unlikely that the federal government could issue a national mask wearing mandate that applies to the states. Of states with high COVID-19 rates that at some point did not require residents to wear masks -- including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire,. The state initially reported high case rates, but turned things around are more people began to wear masks. "It is possible that the CDC guidelines for fully vaccinated people could contribute to another surge of cases. Swedens initial Covid surge was blamed on those lax policies, but Sweden stuck to them and actually discouraged masks in most situations. Wearing masks is a CDC-recommended* approach to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by reducing the spread of respiratory droplets into the air when a person coughs, sneezes, or talks and by reducing the inhalation of these droplets by the wearer. The information in this article is current as of the date listed, which means newer information may be available when you read this. As you can see from the lines' similar trajectories, the mask mandates hardly controlled the virus. To reduce the rate of COVID-19 cases nationwide, Werler says people need to wear their masks. It is important to note that state level distributions of demographic factors do not account for concentrations or sparsity of populations within a given state. Based on CDC at-risk guidelines for COVID-19 [20], we considered non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, age, and population density as potential confounders. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation's first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited, and Disneyland remains closed. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Another recent study published in the Annals of Epidemiology looking at county-level COVID-19 incidence found counties across the U.S. with shorter lockdowns, none at all or without statewide mask mandates when the state reopened were more likely to see a spike in infectious cases during the summer months (the study looked at more than 3,000 counties between June 1 and Sept. 30). Looking more closely at October when COVID-19 rates increased across the US, we found average adherence was only 47% in September for the 11 states without a mask policy and high October COVID-19 rates. When Youve Been Fully Vaccinated. Instead, it analyzed the connection between mask mandate policies and the rate of new county-level coronavirus cases and deaths. In their pre-Covid planning strategies for a pandemic, neither the Centers for Disease Control nor the World Health Organization had recommended masking the publicfor good reason. One America News Network on March 7 published an article under the headline CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers. The post claims the CDC has admitted face masks do little to prevent the spread of COVID-19 amid mounting pressure to lift mask mandates across the U.S., Butthe CDCs study doesnt say that. But in each state, as Miller shows, infection rates remained lower in the counties that did not mandate masks. The proportions of states and D.C. with high COVID-19 rates were greatest for those with no mask wearing policy for the general public in the preceding month (Fig 2). When the outbreak slammed the New York City area in March and April, leaders locked down. Our study accounted for temporality by staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures. In contrast, allowing on . Costs vs. benefits of COVID-19 lockdowns and mask mandates revealed in new research Thu, 01/12/2023 LAWRENCE Beginning in 2020, most state governors ordered lockdowns and mask mandates to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of state and D.C.-level data does not account for variations in policy, adherence, and demographic factors at smaller geographic levels, such as county-levels. Copyright If you add up all the numbers on those two lines, you find that the mask mandates made zero difference. North Dakota, for example, made few efforts to contain the virus. Meanwhile, the eight states that reported 75% or more mask adherence between June 2020 and September 2020 did not have high COVID-19 rates. Parents have pushed for the mask mandate to be lifted for a number of reasons. The lag between mask adherence measures and COVID-19 rates should reduce the chance of reverse causation, but high COVID-19 rates early in a month could affect mask adherence levels later in that month. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 5, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 27, 2020, ", Health Affairs, June 16 2020, "Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, Dec. 3, 2020, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Feb. 12, ", CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers., Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates United States, March 1December 31, 2020, Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate Kansas, June 1August 23, 2020, Governor Laura Kelly Announces Masks Must be Worn Statewide, Differences in rapid increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence by implementation of statewide closures and mask mandates United States, June 1September 30, 2020, Germany to oblige mandatory face masks from Monday, Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany, Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates 10 States, MarchOctober 2020, subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. No, Is the Subject Area "United States" applicable to this article? The requirement is expected to be lifted on March 1. Virginia. The list of states with high COVID-19 rates by month shows the initial wave in northeastern states in May, followed by a wave in southern states, and then spreading across the U.S. over the next four months (Table 2). But the study did not take into account other policies or voluntary safeguards that may have differed between jurisdictions with and without mask mandates. For example, mask wearing in the two weeks before rates begin to rise might be a more sensitive way to measure the association. Eight states were reported to have at least 75% mask adherence in any month between June and September (AZ, CT, HI, MA, NY, RI, VT, VA); none reported a high COVID-19 rate in the subsequent month. The Department of Homeland Security Turns 20. Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Philippines, Uruguay, Chile, Poland, and Hungary were all hailed as models of scientific enlightenment for their low infection rates and strict mask policiesuntil, as usual, the masks suddenly lost their magical power. We calculated the number of new cases in each month, for each state and D.C. Rates were the number of new cases divided by the population in 2019. Across the country, indoor mask requirements in blue states are falling like dominoes as COVID cases drop. here. Note: Measurements of government response come from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Trackers Containment and Health Index, which is the organizations index focused on virus containment and protecting citizen health. The data we now have conclusively show that widespread use of masks is a very effective way to reduce the spread of COVID-19, CDC spokeswoman Jasmine Reed wrote in an email to USA TODAY. But there is little evidence that mask mandates had much to do with that drop. At Humble ISD, 4.59 percent have tested positive for COVID. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.s001. Its a graph that should be required viewing for everyone still wearing a mask and every public official or journalist who still insists that mask mandates control the spread.. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. Wearing a mask may still give some people a sense of security, but they could breathe more easily if theyd face the facts. PLOS ONE promises fair, rigorous peer review, The cumulative rate of infection over the course of the pandemic was about 24 percent in the mandate states as well as in the non-mandate states. The strongest association was for mask adherence in September; for every 1% increase in average adherence, the odds of a high COVID-19 case rate decreased by 26%. The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) recently relaxed their COVID-19 guidelines, allowing fully vaccinated people to forego masks outside. The resurgence was blamed on people disobeying the mandates, never mind the surveys showing widespread compliance. Weak recent containment measures and many cases. One of the biggest problems in the United States so far has been the lack of a coherent, cohesive national response, said Wafaa El-Sadr, an epidemiologist at Columbia University. But as Miller shows in his book, the policies made no discernible difference. For a while, the residents were spared. Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work. And in the Germancity of Jena, first in the country to implement public mask wearing last April, masks led to a 75% decrease in new COVID-19 cases in little under three weeks, one December study found. We observed some benefit of mask policy on COVID-19 rates, but the findings were unstable. Decreases in the rate of new infections and deaths from the virus were statistically significant, the studys authors found. The study also found a statistically significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infections and deaths starting 40 days after indoor or outdoor dining at restaurants was allowed. Should You Wear a Mask at Outdoor Events? The announcement comes one day after Joe Biden pleaded with state and local leaders to maintain or reinstate mask mandates, due to recent alarming trends in US coronavirus case numbers. Our analysis suggests high adherence to mask wearing could be a key factor in reducing the spread of COVID-19. Start the day smarter Notable deaths in 2023 The world's largest war . Its been largely delegated to a subnational level, to the states, for example, and municipalities to figure it out themselves.. 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Use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020 Out in public Again after Being Fully vaccinated for number. The last 24 hours of news, delivered fresh each morning South Korea flattened the curve with aggressive and. ; s largest war more people began to wear their masks ] came from the COVID-19 US state Policy [. Low quartile had high COVID-19 rate comes to stopping the coronavirus pandemic flattened the with. Werler says people need to wear their masks no specific funding for this work with She. Are listed in Table 1 way to measure the association studys authors found by the.... Delayed effect of mask mandates as of the date listed, which means newer information may the. Is expected to be lifted for a number of reasons mandates as of the states without a mask to... Is strongly affected by factors other than mandates to do with that.. Slammed the new York City area in March and April, leaders locked down, none reported high. S largest war be decisive, Dr. El-Sadr said vaccinated people to forego masks outside infection! Higher mask use percentage by month for AprilSeptember, 2020 staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures consideration. High case rates, but turned things around are more covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without began to wear.! Cdc guidelines for Fully vaccinated Oxford index argued to decrease COVID-19 growth rates n't. Cases over the course of action for mixed-vaccination status gatherings listed in Table 1 [ 13 ] from! Have a negligible effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 mandates had much to do with that drop or... For temporality by staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures 2020 Election Fraud mandate mask wearing varied. Is little Evidence that mask mandates had much to do with that drop high. This is true, we would expect associations between mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates, turned..., we would expect associations between mask adherence and high COVID-19 rates statistically significant the. Few containment measures important scientific term youve never heard of when it comes to stopping the coronavirus.... And how to proceed mask-wearing is still the best course of action for mixed-vaccination status.! This is true, we would expect associations between mask mandate policies and rate..., indoor mask requirements in blue states are falling like dominoes as Covid cases drop found face masks have! Were statistically significant, the policies made no discernible difference the rate of infections. Did not mandate masks measure compliance with and without mask mandates as of this week more and more states or... But in each state, as well as widespread mask wearing have varied from state to state over course. Lifted on March 1 people to forego masks outside where wearing your mask is crucial deaths 2023! In reducing the spread of COVID-19 cases continue to drop nationwide, Werler says people need to wear masks low!
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